MonsterDraft Fantasy Football Tools

Value Based Drafting and Player Rankings

The engine of MonsterDraft’s online fantasy football custom player rankings is value based drafting. The first fundamental principle of value based drafting is that you must outscore your opponent by enough points at enough positions to make up for the points that you are outscored by at your weakest positions. Unless you are in a league full of rookies you will not outscore every opponent at every position. You only need to outscore him by enough points at enough positions to win on any given week.

Projections of production in statistical categories that generate fantasy points (yards rushing, yards passing, etc.) must be generated for every player. Then, based on the scoring format for your league, value based drafting calculates a value for each player based on the projected fantasy points for that player relative to projected fantasy points for other players at that particular position. Player rankings are based on these values. In other words, if a particular player is likely to outscore other players at his position he has a higher value than if he is projected to score fewer points than other players at his position (duh!). This value can then be used to compare players against all other players – not just those at their respective positions to arrive at player rankings.

The following table illustrates player rankings calculated based on actual statistics from the 2006 season using a standard scoring format and assuming a 12 team league with each team starting 1 QB, 2 RB’s, 3 WR’s, and 1 TE.

In this example the player rankings or values are calculated by comparing a player’s fantasy points to the average starter at each position for the league (eg., LaDainian Tomlinson's value is calculated by subtracting the average points for the top 24 running backs in this assumed league from his points of 416, giving him a value of 267).

Interestingly, Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens both rank higher than Maurice Jones-Drew based on value although both scored fewer points than Jones-Drew. This is because both wide receivers outscored the average wide receiver by more than Jones-Drew outscored the average running back.

Also of interest is Michael Vick coming in at a higher value than Drew Brees. The scoring format used in this example rewards rushing touchdowns 6 points and passing touchdowns 4 points. Also, this format awards 1 point for each 10 yards of rushing and 1 point for each 25 yards of passing. Obviously, this scoring format favors Vick's style. This emphasizes the importance of using a system that is customizable to your league's scoring format.

Player rankings for the upcoming draft will be based on projected statistics for each player instead of that player’s statistics from last year. These projections are a critical element of value based drafting. MonsterDraft conducts exhaustive research to arrive at average projected statistics for each player. These projections are updated regularly (at least weekly) during the preseason. We then compute the projected fantasy points based on your league scoring format and arrive at each player’s value based on the number of teams and positional starters in your league. Check out how it works by viewing our demo here.

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