Overall Fantasy Impact: Above Average
Offensive Outlook: Don’t be misled by the fact that the Chargers were only 20th in the league in offensive yardage last year. The fact that they often jumped out to big early leads meant that the offense was able to dial it down early.
With a full season of Chris Chambers, the Chargers should be able to mix the downfield passing attack they flashed in the playoffs with the LaDainian Tomlinson-led rushing attack and light up the weak defenses in the AFc West.
The main concerns are health-related.
Quarterback Philip Rivers and LT are both coming off offseason surgery, although both should be ready for the start of the season.
Without Michael Turner around, Tomlinson must be extra-sturdy this year. And tight-end extraordinaire Antonio Gates is a question-mark to open the season healthy after February foot surgery. No offense could withstand the loss of a talent like that without being affected.
QUARTERBACKS: Judging by his stats from his first two years as a starter, you know what you’re going to get from Rivers: Approximately 3,200 yards and 21 TDs. The big negative with his fantasy prospects is that the Chargers can win with him doing very little, as evidenced by his 6 games under 200 yards passing last year. In the playoffs, with LT hobbled, he was forced to open it up and produced solid numbers. But this offense revolves around the running game, so Rivers is much better utilized as a solid No.2 fantasy quarterback.
Backup Billy Volek would be worth a waiver-wire pickup if Rivers gets injured.
RUNNING BACKS: Tomlinson won the rushing title by 133 yards, and finished 2nd in total TDs (18) behind Randy Moss. And yet is was viewed as a bad year. That’s because it was compared to his 31-TD explosion in ‘06, and because he got off to an awful start in which he averaged barely over 2 yards a carry in the first three games. After that he averaged over 100 yards a game.
Some say that Adrian Peterson is a better choice as the No.1 overall fantasy pick in 2008, but Tomlinson is just too much of a sure thing to pass up. Take him at the top if you’re lucky enough to get the pick.
With Turner in Atlanta getting a chance to start, the second-string role is up for grabs. Darren Sproles will get the first chance but he’s hasn’t proven much outside of his ability to return kicks and be effective on third down. Rookie third-rounder Jacob Hester has some versatility with his ability to play fullback, but he lacks big-play ability. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers go out and get a veteran to play caddy to Tomlinson.
WIDER RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS: Chris Chambers did a solid job in San Diego considering that he had to learn everything on the fly after his midseason trade from Miami. He never catches quite enough passes to be a go-to fantasy guy, but he’s averaged nearly 7 TDs a year in his career, and he’d be an excellent No.2.
The guy that’s impossible to gauge going into the season is Vincent Jackson. He broke a lot of owners’ heart last year after being judged a breakout candidate. He had only 41 catches, 3 TDs, and 8 games with two catches or less. Then, in the playoffs, he exploded with 300 yards in 3 games and a pair of TDs. Get two solid starters on your roster before you take a chance on Jackson, but he could pay big dividends.
Second-year man Craig Davis was a bit of a disappointment as a rookie and shouldn’t be a fantasy factor even if he wins the third-receiver job from veteran Eric Parker.
Gates is coming off another brilliant season in which he was fourth among tight ends in yards (984) and second in TDs (9). But he’s not assured to start the season on time. Keep a close eye on reports coming out of training camp before you proceed. With the depth at the tight end position, it would be wise to wait until at least Round 5 or 6 before taking the chance on him.